Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018 – Lansing, MI – Forget a blue wave. Michigan’s top political pundits predict a blue tsunami this November will sweep away Republican control of the state’s three big statewide offices. According to the results of the latest pundit poll, the state’s leading political thinkers overwhelmingly expect to be working in 2019 with a Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, and, by a much more narrow margin, Attorney General Dana Nessel.
The poll, conducted Oct. 1-3, asked the pundits if the election for each office were held today, who would win?
For Governor, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer carried 86% of the vote, to Republican Bill Schuette’s 8%.
In the race for Secretary of State, Democrat Jocelyn Benson has the confidence of 88% of the pundits, with 8% favoring Mary Treder Lang.
The bitter contest for Attorney General is much more narrow, in pundits’ minds, with only 42% convinced Dana Nessel will carry the day, barely edging out Republican Tom Leonard at 38%.
“Conventional wisdom in Lansing is that November 2018 will be incredibly kind to Michigan Democrats, but conventional wisdom has been wrong before,” said Matt Resch, President and founder of Resch Strategies. “Just 2 years ago, the pundits were nearly as convinced of an impending Hillary Clinton presidency. Voters outside the Lansing bubble thought differently. Do they again?”
In a pundit poll conducted during the first week of October in 2016, Michigan’s political insiders overwhelmingly predicted Hillary Clinton would carry the state of Michigan (78 percent) and would become the nation’s 45th President (60 percent).
"The top of the ticket has Democrats excited about winning their statewide seats and they also think they have quality leaders," said Dennis Denno, President of Denno Research. "When it comes to the AG race, Republicans think they have the edge, and hope to use Leonard as a breakwall against the potential blue and pink wave."
The Pundit Poll is a survey on the latest political news and issues in Michigan. The survey uses emails to collect the compiled and confidential responses from political strategists, consultants, and insiders across Michigan, with the goal of offering an insider’s look at the political issues facing the state. A full list of the nearly 100 pundits in the poll can be found at: www.thepunditpoll.com.
Methodology: This was a Resch Strategies/Denno Research survey of Michigan political experts, pundits, and members of the media. 128 respondents were invited and 86 responded. The survey was emailed October 1 and was closed October 3.