Pundits Overwhelmingly Believe It’d Pass, But Say It’ll Never Make the Ballot
Troubled Rollout of Proposal has Hurt Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, Experts Believe
Tuesday, June 27, 2017 – Lansing, MI – Michigan’s top political pundits were asked to weigh in on the part time legislature ballot campaign being spearheaded by Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, and the proposal’s impact on Calley’s position as a Republican leader and presumed candidate for governor. Republican, Democratic and Independent pundits overwhelmingly agree voters would approve the proposal, but don’t believe they’ll ever be given the chance.
Michigan’s 100 top political insiders were asked:
1. There is an attempt to put a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. It would allow voters to determine whether they want Michigan’s legislature to move to part-time. If it is on the ballot, will it pass?
2. Will the people behind the part-time legislature initiative be successful in their quest to get this on the November 2018 ballot?
3. Lt. Governor Brian Calley has spearheaded the part-time legislature effort. Has this strengthened or weakened him politically?
An overwhelming 78 percent of the pundits surveyed believe voters would approve the part time legislature proposal, if given the chance, while only 9 percent believe they’d reject it.
The experts were much less optimistic about the ability of proposal-backers to actually get their language onto next year’s ballot. More than 67 percent of the pundits believe the proposal won’t make the ballot, with less than 13 percent believing it’ll go before voters.
“The pundits agree, Brian Calley has tapped into a message voters are likely to embrace, but after a troubled rollout they’re all but convinced voters will never see it at the ballot,” said Matt Resch, President of Resch Strategies.
Pundits are just as pessimistic about the impact the proposal’s contentious rollout has had on the political fortunes of its most prominent backer. Nearly 53 percent of respondents believe the rollout has weakened Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, a presumed Republican candidate for governor. One in five respondents believe the rollout has seriously weakened Calley.
In contrast, only 11 percent of respondents believe the rollout has strengthened the Lieutenant Governor’s political hand.
“Republicans and Democrats in nearly identical numbers believe Brian Calley has weakened himself ahead of next year’s Republican gubernatorial primary,” said Dennis Denno, President of Denno Research. “The good news for Calley is that he seems to have tapped into an issue with tremendous populist appeal, and the election is still a long ways off.”
The Pundit Poll is a survey on the latest political news and issues in Michigan. The survey uses emails to collect the compiled and confidential responses from political strategists, consultants, and insiders across Michigan, with the goal of offering an insider’s look at the political issues facing the state. A full list of 100 pundits in the poll can be found at: www.thepunditpoll.com.
This was a Resch Strategies / Denno Research survey of Michigan political experts, pundits, and members of the media. 100 respondents were invited and 55 responded. The survey was emailed Friday, June 23 and closed Saturday, June 24.