Thursday, Oct. 6, 2016 – Lansing, MI – One month to go and Michigan’s political insiders have made their predictions on which party will control the Michigan State House and which presidential candidate will win Michigan on the way to the White House. Both major political parties have something to celebrate.
Control of the Michigan House of Representatives is really the only game in town when it comes to state elections, and speculation and spin for months have raised the prospect of Democrats wresting control of the House from the GOP. With just over 30 days until Election Day, the insider members of The Pundit Poll aren’t buying it.
When asked, “Will Republicans maintain control of the Michigan House of Representatives in 2018, or will Democrats retake control?” an overwhelming 72 percent said the GOP would stay in control. 12 percent thought the Dems would take over and 9 percent thought Michigan would see a 55 to 55 tie.
Interestingly, the response was bipartisan as well. 50 percent of Democrats joined 87 percent of Republicans in thinking the House GOP will win the day.
“With little else happening on the campaign front in Michigan, the State House has been the focus,” Matt Resch, President of Resch Strategies said. “While early optimism from the Democrats lead many to think a change at the top could be coming, it looks like the hard campaign work by the House GOP could keep them in control.”
On the presidential front, little has changed the minds of Michigan political insiders over the last 6 months. In March, 77 percent of The Pundit Poll predicted Hillary Clinton would win Michigan with 67 percent also predicting she would win the national vote. Today, 78 percent of those polled say Hillary will win Michigan with 60 percent predicting she takes the oath of office.
“The Donald does not seem to be doing anything to help himself,” said Dennis Denno, President of Denno Research. “Clinton is portraying a steady hand at leadership, and Trump is—well, Donald Trump. Erratic, unprofessional, and picking fights with the wrong people.”
Every single Democrat polled is down with Clinton. GOP respondents are more evenly divided with 47 percent seeing a Clinton-Kaine victory, and 33 percent predicting a Trump upset.
In addition, the Pundit Poll has asked a tracking poll question about Governor Snyder and his ultimate legacy. Insiders’ response: 38 percent believe the Governor’s legacy will be either “strong” or “decent.” 31 percent see the Governor’s legacy as weak, 26 percent say it will be “pretty bad.”
The Pundit Poll is a survey on the latest political news and issues in Michigan. The survey uses emails to collect the compiled and confidential responses from political strategists, consultants, and insiders across Michigan, with the goal of offering an insider’s look at the political issues facing the state. A full list of the nearly 100 pundits in the poll can be found at: www.thepunditpoll.com.
Methodology: This was a Resch Strategies/Denno Research survey of Michigan political experts, pundits, and members of the media. 100 respondents were invited and 65 responded. The survey was emailed Thursday Sept. 29 and was closed Saturday evening, Oct. 1.